How Does Qualification In The CL Look Now?

It was a disappointing display last night. While losing to Shakhtar is nothing to be ashamed of, the performance was. The difference bet...

It was a disappointing display last night. While losing to Shakhtar is nothing to be ashamed of, the performance was. The difference between the two teams in enthusiasm reminded me a little of the Athletico Madrid match. Now we need to pick ourselves up and prepare for domestic football once more.

So, at the half way point, how bleak is our position in our champions league group? Truthfully, not as bad as RDM made out I thought. He seemed to believe that our qualification was in more danger than it actually is.

We need to win our next two home games for sure. The consolation was tonight’s draw in Copenhagen and it just shows what a difficult competition this is but, certainly, we have to win our game against Shakhtar.

I would be a lot more concerned had Juventus not drawn in Denmark (which quite frankly feels a little like an early Christmas present), but as it stands I am still confident. This article would have had a very different tone if Juventus had won.

This is how we stand:
Shakhtar: 7 points.
Chelsea: 4 points.
Juventus: 3 points.
Nordsjaelland: 1 point.

10 points would typically see a club through, which is all I care about at this stage. Let’s assume that we will beat Nordsjaelland in our fifth game. That would give us a minimum of 7 points. All respect to Nordsjaelland, let’s also assume that Juventus and Shakhtar also beat them. This is how the revised group (minus Nordsjaelland) looks with three points added to each team.

Shakhtar: 10 points.
Chelsea: 7 points.
Juventus: 6 points.

If we can beat Shakhtar, then we will have reached 10 points. The next game day will be vital.

If we just want safe qualification, then we should be cheering for Shakhtar, because 13 points for them and 6 for Juventus would assure qualification. If we want to make qualification likely with the possibility of finishing top possible, we should want a draw. If you’re crazy and will settle for nothing less than top spot, then we want a Juventus win. Of course we are still working from the premises that we beat Shakhtar at home.

Everything comes down to this week. It will determine the situation we find ourselves in coming into the final game. I don’t think Juventus will beat Shakhtar, worst case scenario a draw in my opinion. If we can get the job done at the bridge in two weeks, then we will be in a great position to qualify.

We can still afford to draw against Shakhtar at the bridge (I’m not going to consider the possibility of us losing) and make up for it against Juventus, but that would be very dangerous. I am confident of us winning our next game though.

This is my prediction for the final table. I think it will come down to goal difference:

Shakhtar: 11 points – L, D, W
Chelsea: 11 points – W, W, D
Juventus: 8 points – W, D, D

Could be worse, we could be Juventus. We could be City!

Follow me on twitter: @cody_bound


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